"With 2019 coming to an end in a matter of weeks, we are thinking about both the coming year and the start of a new decade. I believe that next year and beyond will be characterized by what I refer to as the “three t’s:” transition, tension and transformation.
Let’s first start with transition to the next phase of the cycle. Ten years into the current expansion, the longest in U.S. history, the question I get most is “when will the next recession hit?” The short and honest answer is that no one knows.
Despite some recent headlines, the outlook for the global and national market is for slowing growth rather than contraction in 2020, and the Boston landscape remains quite positive within that macro context. Although some warning signs exist within the financial markets, within the business sector and on the policy front, consumers continue to power the economy along bolstered by job and wage growth, housing, and stock market gains. U.S. consumer spending still accounts for 70% of the domestic economy, and 17% of the global economy. Our outlook calls for a volatile but positive 2020, and a likely recession (milder than the last one) in the next 18-36 months."
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